U.S. sweepstakes casinos are on track for billions in 2025, but estimates differ based on whether figures are gross purchases or net revenue.
Earlier industry projections were near $6.9 billion (gross) for 2025, while Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) recently trimmed expectations to about $4.0 billion (net) for 2025 amid regulatory pressure.
Some highlight strong growth drivers and investor optimism, underscoring how momentum and policy shifts could swing the final number.
Where the 2025 Numbers Land—And Who Says What
Some industry watchers expected the sweeps casino market to approach $6.9 billion in 2025 on a gross basis—meaning all player purchases before costs and prize outflows. However, Eilers & Krejcik Gaming revised its outlook to roughly $4.0 billion in net revenue for 2025, reflecting what operators may actually keep after prizes and expenses.
That same analysis suggests a potential dip toward $3.6 billion in 2026 if regulatory headwinds tighten further. Taken together, this frames 2025 as a year where top-line spending could look large, but the money retained by companies may be smaller.
Others emphasize rapid operator expansion, easier onboarding, and aggressive marketing as reasons the category keeps attracting attention from both users and investors. We can speculate why forecasts skew higher on a gross basis: many platforms can advertise broadly, scale quickly across states that allow them, and launch with relatively light licensing burdens.
This backdrop helps explain why some observers land closer to the upper end of the range on purchases, even as net outcomes can diverge once costs and compliance are included.
For readers comparing projections, the most important distinction is definition. A gross purchase estimate near $6.9B aligns with the sector’s visible growth in site launches and user spend.
A net revenue estimate near $4.0B aligns with the realities of prize redemption at sweepstakes sites, payment fees, and rising compliance costs. Both can be true at once; they simply describe different parts of the same funnel.
What Could Move the Final Tally Up—or Down
State-level regulation remains the biggest wild card for 2025. Prominent states weighing or enacting restrictions regarding the legality of sweepstakes casinos can shrink the addressable market and drive operators to pause marketing or exit.
If large states finalize stricter rules (as California just did), the 2025 result likely leans toward the lower net figure. If rules stabilize and enforcement stays limited, gross purchase totals could stay near the upper range as brands pursue customer growth.
Operator mix also matters. A handful of large brands can push headline spending with big promotions, but an influx of smaller new sweeps sites can raise churn and acquisition costs, pressuring net revenue. In that scenario, total purchases might rise while retained earnings lag.
Finally, user behavior will shape the end result. If promotions, influencer campaigns, and smooth payments keep conversion steady, 2025 totals should remain strong. If consumers cut back on discretionary spend or face friction cashing out prizes, momentum could soften.
Either way, the most responsible way to read the 2025 outlook is as a range: high single-digit billions on a gross basis, and roughly four billion on a net basis, with policy choices deciding where the dust settles.
